The Netherlands can expect even more heat, drought, and intense downpours in the coming years due to climate change. The sea level rise will also be higher, according to the latest climate scenarios from the meteorological institute KNMI.
The climate scientists again stressed that “it is certain that humans influence the climate.” Greenhouse gas emissions are the factor that determines the extent to which the Netherlands will warm up and experience extreme weather. KNMI chief Maarten van Aalst, therefore, hopes these figures will be used “to make the right choices.” These choices “matter,” he stressed on Monday during the presentation of the climate scenarios. “Ultimately, it is about what we are going to do with the figures.”
In the climate scientists’ high emissions scenario, the world will continue to build its economic growth on fossil fuels, and global CO2 emissions will continue to rise for a long time. If that happens, the Dutch will feel climate change the hardest. But even in the low emissions scenario, in which emissions decrease in line with the Paris Climate Agreement, there will be “major consequences.” The KNMI report also distinguishes between a wetter and drier scenario because the Netherlands is in a transition area in terms of precipitation change.
Heat waves will be more common in the future, and they will be hotter and last longer. That is the case for all scenarios. In the high emissions scenario, the Netherlands will have about 13 tropical days with temps above 30 per year by 2050 and see thermometers hit 40 degrees Celsius every year from the end of this century. The Netherlands has only reached 40 degrees once so far since temperature measurements started in 1901. In the low emissions scenario, there will be nine tropical days per year by 2050, compared to five now.
The Dutch summers will see less rainfall and more moisture evaporation, resulting in long or extreme droughts more often. In the high emissions scenario, an extreme drought like the one in 2018 will be the average from 2100. The low-emission scenario will also see more drought, but the change is significantly smaller.
At the same time, heavy downpours will become more intense, making it extra complicated to cope with the changing climate. The Netherlands must find ways to both store water and get rid of it quickly, simultaneously preparing for intense downpours and long periods of drought.
The high emissions scenario is not very likely, the researchers acknowledged. The growth of global CO2 emissions is slowing and will start to decline within a few years. But they also warned of possible setbacks, like the ice caps in Antarctica reaching a tipping point and melting faster. In that case, sea levels off the Dutch coast could rise by 2.5 meters by 2100 and by over 17 meters by the year 2300.
Without such extremes, the KNMI estimates a maximum sea level rise of 1.24 meters by 2100 in the very high scenario. In the low scenario, water levels will be between 26 and 73 centimeters higher by the end of the century. However, in any scenario, sea levels will rise for centuries to come because the ice caps respond slowly to the current climate. “The future of the Netherlands depends heavily on sea level rise,” researcher Sybren Drijfhout warned.
The past summer showed again how severe the weather extremes already are, Van Aalst said. He referred to the thousands of people who died in Libya due to flooding and the “terrible forest fires in Canada,” among other things. The devastating effects of climate change are already visible in all kinds of places. “And that also applies in the Netherlands.” Here, hundreds more people than typical die during heat waves, and the Netherlands is at risk of flooding.
We must adapt to the risks posed by climate change, the KNMI stressed. “We must prepare for circ*mstances that we may never have experienced before,” Van Aalst said, according to ANP. He emphasized that choices must also be made to determine how high greenhouse gas emissions will be in the next few years. These emissions “determine in which range we end up in.”
Government response
“If we want to keep our Dutch delta safe and livable, we must thoroughly study this knowledge and work with it, translating it into action,” outgoing Minister Mark Harbers of Infrastructure and Water Management said in response to the KNMI’s new scenarios, ANP reports.
Harbers called it “evident” that all Netherlands residents “must commit themselves to making our lives more sustainable.” The government is already working hard on that, he said.
