What is the prime interest rate? (2024)

Lurking in the fine print of every loan and credit card agreement is the interest rate. How do lenders come up with that rate? It’s not magic: It comes from the prime rate. This bellwether interest rate is not available to consumers, but it almost always is a major factor in determining the interest that consumers pay for balances on credit cards, personal loans and other types of debt.

An overview of the prime interest rate

The prime rate is what a bank charges its very best, lowest-risk business customers. That ripples through to consumers in two ways, explained Marc Balcer, director of investment strategy with wealth management firm Girard. If you are borrowing money short term through a credit card or personal loan, the prime rate will drive those rates.

Conversely, if you are saving money in a short-term instrument like a certificate of deposit (CD) or money market fund, the interest rate you are paid by the bank also will track with the prime rate. “Money market rates are close to federal fund rates,” noted Balcer.

How the prime interest rate is determined

The prime rate is largely set by the rate that the Federal Reserve influences for its overnight lending to banks, explained Timothy Michael, associate professor of finance with the University of Houston-Clear Lake and executive director of the Financial Education Association. The fed funds rate is announced daily. And while the Federal Reserve cannot require banks to follow its lead, they do — and they look to each other to make sure that their rates are in line.

“If the Fed wants the rates to rise, they’ll manipulate some short-term mechanisms to use their influence,” said Michael. For instance, the Fed might hold back some of its own transactions to tighten the market.

Banks then figure how to charge their very best business customers based on the fed funds rate, usually described in terms of “prime plus.” For instance, if the fed funds rate is 5%, roughly where it was in early 2024, a lender might calculate its prime rate as 8%: the prime rate plus three percentage points.

Economic factors influencing the prime rate

“The most important link economically for the prime rate is inflation,” said Michael. The prime rate usually is quick to reflect inflation or, in the opposite direction, deflation.

While the prime rate itself is for banks lending to businesses, the fact that the prime rate quickly ripples through to credit card and short-term consumer debt makes it a good inflation indicator to watch.

Historical review of prime rate changes

If you’re wondering how to respond when someone complains about the current cost of borrowing, send them to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis to see a running tally of the federal funds effective rate. There, you will see that from the aftermath of the financial crisis in 2009 until 2015, the federal funds effective rate scraped along in a range between 0% and 0.25%. Then, between 2015 and 2018, the rate bumped up to about 2.5%. When the Covid-19 pandemic hit in 2020, the Fed dropped the rate again to nearly zero, partly to remove pressure from a shocked economy. Then, as the US economy started to recover, the Fed raised its funds rate again, and it rose like a cobra to its current level of about 5.5%.

The federal funds rate and the prime rate

The fed fund rate sets in motion the daily juggle of Fed-to-bank lending that quickly translates to the prime rate, which banks charge their most valued and reliable commercial customers. The fed funds rate does not dictate the prime rate. The prime rate is formulated and charged by banks, although it tends to track changes in the fed fund effective rate, as you can see in the following chart:

Impact of the prime rate on individuals and the economy

When the prime rate changes significantly, consumer rates — for both loans and investments — will soon follow.

“If you are going to get a credit card, know that nearly all cards are tied to the prime rate,” said Michael. That’s why it’s important to understand when, why and how much your credit card rates will likely change, following the prime rate.

On the flip side, it takes banks and credit unions a bit longer to raise the interest rates that they pay on CDs and money market funds, even when the prime rate is rising. “There’s a noticeable lag,” said Michael. “The bank doesn’t want to pay you more money. Even though rates are going up, they do it slowly.”

How does the prime rate impact you?

Mainly, the prime rate is an early warning of changes in interest rates that are about to filter through to short-term loans and short-term lending.

Long-term loans, especially mortgages, are not much affected by the short-term fluctuations of the fed funds rate and the prime rates, said Balcer. In the same way, these short-term interest rates have little effect on long-term investable debt, such as bond rates, he said.

Frequently asked questions (FAQs)

Because the fed funds rate is set fresh each day, the prime rate theoretically also can change daily. But in practice, it takes a few weeks for even an abrupt rise in the prime rate to emerge, because even a dramatic change in the fed funds rate comes in several steps, not in a single big jump.

“Pretty nearly,” said Balcer, because all banks take their cues from the fed funds rate. Banks also consider competitors’ rates, but the variation in the prime rate is usually minimal.

Bear in mind that the prime rate is not available to consumers. Banks and lenders are very competitive when it comes to credit card and loan rates and, on the earning side, CD and money market rates. Always shop around for the best rates, whether you are borrowing or investing.

The prime rate is the commercial extension, in practical terms, of the daily interest rate set by the Federal Reserve. The prime rate sets the terms for the best-case borrowing scenario: What would the most reliable corporate borrower pay? All other rates, including consumer rates, are compared to the best-case rate.

The prime rate has little real-life relationship to mortgage rates, explained Michael, for two reasons. First, mortgages are collateralized by the house that is mortgaged. If the homeowner fails to pay the loan, the lender can repossess the house and sell it to get their money back. That’s not the case with, say, credit card debt. It is impossible to repossess the meal you paid for with your credit card. Secondly, mortgages are very long term. The standard mortgage is for 30 years — beyond the reach of even the Federal Reserve and its forecasts.

What is the prime interest rate? (2024)

FAQs

What is the prime interest rate? ›

The Prime Rate is the interest rate that banks use as a basis to set rates for different types of loans, credit cards and lines of credit.

What is the current prime interest rate? ›

The current Bank of America, N.A. prime rate is 8.50% (rate effective as of July 27, 2023).

What is prime vs Fed interest rate? ›

Generally, the prime rate is about 3 percent higher than the federal funds rate. That means that when the Fed raises interest rates, the prime rate also goes up. The prime rate is the rate at which individual banks and credit unions lend to their customers, including large corporations.

What is the current Fed interest rate? ›

What is the current Fed interest rate? Right now, the Fed interest rate is 5.25% to 5.50%. The FOMC established that rate in late July 2023.

What is the highest prime interest rate in US history? ›

What was the highest prime rate? The highest prime rate was 21.5%, reached on December 19, 1980.

What is the prime rate over the last 12 months? ›

Basic Info

Bank Prime Loan Rate is at 8.50%, compared to 8.50% last month and 8.00% last year. This is higher than the long term average of 6.47%.

Is prime rate higher than mortgage rate? ›

If you lock in a fixed mortgage rate with a lender, the prime rate won't affect the rate you receive. Specifically, fixed-rate mortgages are usually lower than the prime rate because lenders sell mortgages to major mortgage investors, such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

What is the Wells Fargo prime rate? ›

The Wells Fargo Prime Rate is 8.50% as of 07/27/2023.

Where are interest rates going in the next 5 years? ›

MBA: Rates Will Decline to 6.4% In its April Mortgage Finance Forecast, the Mortgage Bankers Association predicts that mortgage rates will fall from 6.8% in the first quarter of 2024 to 6.4% by the fourth quarter. The industry group expects rates will fall below the 6% threshold in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Will interest rates go down in 2024? ›

Will mortgage rates go down—and stay there? The general consensus among industry professionals is that mortgage rates will slowly decline in the last quarter of 2024. The projected declines have shrunk, though, in recent months. At the start of the year, for instance, Fannie Mae predicted rates would drop to 5.8%.

Why were interest rates so high in the 80s? ›

The fed funds rate has never been as high as it was in the 1980s. The main reason is because the Fed wanted to combat inflation, which soared in 1980 to its highest level on record: 14.6 percent.

Who sets the prime rate? ›

How is the prime rate determined? The prime rate isn't determined by the Fed, but instead by individual banks. However, the prime rate is influenced by something called the federal funds rate, which is set by the Federal Open Market Committee consisting of twelve Fed members.

What year was the highest interest rate ever? ›

Interest rates reached their highest point in modern history in October 1981 when they peaked at 18.63%, according to the Freddie Mac data. Fixed mortgage rates declined from there, but they finished the decade at around 10%.

Is the prime interest rate going to drop? ›

After the last meeting meeting, the Fed predicted three quarter-point cuts by the end of this year. As time goes on, however, that becomes less of a certainty. Some economists have even suggested rates won't budge until March 2025.

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